Trump will blow a “chilling wind” on Canada’s environmental policies

Everything indicates that Donald Trump’s return to the American presidency represents a serious threat to his own country’s environment. But the negative repercussions will not stop at the borders and risk pushing Canada to axe its own environmental rules and climate objectives, according to experts consulted by Le Devoir. A change of direction that could be amplified by the potential election of Pierre Poilievre.

Impact of Billionaire’s Second Presidency on Environmental Progress

It will be like a big icy wind,” summarizes Hugo Séguin, fellow at the Centre for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal, when discussing the effect of the billionaire’s second presidency on the environmental front. “There is momentum right now on the transition in the world. But we are going to seriously put spokes in its wheels. This will be true in the United States, but also in Canada and on the international scene.”

“This will have a direct impact on Canada, because the strong trend is to align ourselves with American rules and policies, particularly for competitiveness reasons,” adds Mr. Séguin. “There will therefore be very strong pressure to push us to abandon environmental regulations that the Liberal government had managed to put in place.”

Among the advances that risk being compromised at a time when the world is heading more than ever towards a real climate shipwreck, he cites as examples carbon pricing, regulations to promote sales of electric vehicles, legislation on the environmental assessment of major projects, and measures taken to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly methane.

Catastrophic

These setbacks are virtually assured in the event of a victory by Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) in the upcoming elections in the coming months, Hugo Séguin emphasizes.

We have to expect a pretty catastrophic scenario. We have to be prepared for a Conservative government to scrap most of the regulations that were put in place under the Liberal government, like the proposed cap on emissions in the oil and gas sector.” The CPC opposes it, as does the oil and gas industry, which sees it as a backdoor way to slow the expected growth in the production of energies that fuel climate change.

Faced with an openly climate-denying and fossil fuel-supporting Donald Trump, the CCP will have all the latitude it needs to justify rollbacks, adds Charles Séguin, professor in the Department of Economics at UQAM. “The Trump effect should give them political arguments to reduce climate targets. If they are elected, we will probably see a downward reduction in the targets for 2030 and 2050. They will be able to say that Canada is a small global emitter, compared to the United States, which will have decided to do less. They will therefore be able to reduce the targets.”

Skepticism Surrounding Environmental Policies under Trump and Poilievre

With Trump and Poilievre, we will have two very skeptical speeches regarding environmental policies and regulations. It is therefore clear that the situation will harm climate objectives,” also emphasizes Maya Jegen, professor in the Department of Political Science at UQAM.

According to her, there is no doubt that the GHG reduction targets put in place by the Trudeau government to meet our commitment in the Paris Agreement are “in danger”. These targets, set by countries on a voluntary basis, are essential to progress in the fight against global warming. Under the terms of the global climate agreement, the reduction targets of each country, and in particular of rich countries, must be revised and strengthened every five years, so as to get closer to what is necessary to slow the rise in temperatures.

Le Devoir tried to contact the CCP by phone and email several times over the past week to find out whether it plans to review certain environmental policies to bring them into line with those of the United States. It did not respond to our requests.

The details of a potential Conservative climate plan are not known (Pierre Poilievre has already said that he does not intend to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, unlike Trump), but they oppose some of the Liberals’ flagship measures, such as carbon pricing, which is recognized by several economists , including at the International Monetary Fund, as one of the most effective and least costly means available to reduce GHGs.

Transition

Andréanne Brazeau, a climate governance specialist at the David Suzuki Foundation, warns against the temptation to move closer to an American presidency hostile to climate action.

“We are not the 51st state of the United States. Contrary to what we are beginning to see from some actors, we must at all costs avoid aligning ourselves with American climate guidelines and instead follow the global trend toward decarbonization. The majority of the Canadian population supports climate action. The arrival of Trump does not change this reality.”

“We are concerned about the progress of international negotiations on plastics, climate, and biodiversity,” adds Ms. Brazeau. “Canada must stay the course on its commitments and increase investments so that this crucial decade advances climate and environmental justice at home and around the world. We must also strengthen our collaborations with the rest of the planet to protect living things, whether with or without the United States.”

Keith Stewart, Senior Energy Strategist at Greenpeace Canada, emphasizes the growing awareness of the urgency of moving toward the accelerated development of renewable energies. This sector has even become a tool for economic development in several American states, including traditionally Republican states, adds Maya Jegen. This enthusiasm has been stimulated in particular by the Biden administration‘s Inflation Reduction Act, which Trump wants to eliminate.

In this context of environmental uncertainties and concerns, we can certainly foresee major setbacks in the coming months and years, but it is also possible that Donald Trump‘s “icy wind” will raise a wave of protest from civil society on both sides of the border, Hugo Séguin suggests. “We could see the mobilization resume where it was stopped by the pandemic.” It must be said that, if climate ambition is not significantly increased this year, it will be virtually impossible to limit global warming to a sustainable threshold.

Steven Guilbeault refuses to “speculate” on the Trump effect

Questioned by Le Devoir, the federal Minister of the Environment, Steven Guilbeault, argued that “it would be premature to speculate on the environmental policies that [the Trump government] could adopt.”

“What remains certain is that Canada’s climate and environmental goals remain unchanged, and our regulations provide essential certainty to businesses and industries, while promoting clean growth, regardless of decisions made elsewhere. It is also important to emphasize that the momentum of global climate action goes beyond the decisions of any single country,” the minister also explained in a written response.

“For the United States, the energy transition and the fight against climate change are not limited to environmental issues. They are also strategic, economic, and security issues,” Mr. Guilbeault also maintained, mentioning in particular the major investments in favor of “clean energies” within the framework of the Inflation Reduction Act.